Prediction and prevention of caries
The younger the population and the lower the caries prevalence in the population, the
higher the percentage of caries-free subjects. In these populations, it is necessary to
focus on “high-risk strategy” and primary prevention, rather than secondary
prevention.
For practicing primary prevention according to the high-risk strategy, the etiologic
factors used for caries prediction must be as sensitive as possible, that is, optimizing
the percentage of true high-risk individuals for cost effectiveness. Because dental
caries is a multifactorial disease with a complicated etiology, it is necessary to
combine as many etiologic factors as possible to predict caries risk in children with
low caries prevalence, which is the situation among most children in the world.
In this approach high and very high plaque formers (PFRI scores 4 and 5,
respectively) with a high percentage of cariogenic bacteria such as S mutans would be
expected to develop significantly more new carious surfaces than would those with a
very low or low plaque formation rate (PFRI scores 1 and 2, respectively) and little or
no S mutans in the plaque.
There is a correlation between salivary S mutans counts and the number of tooth
surfaces colonized with S mutans. Therefore, the combination of salivary S mutans
counts and Plaque Formation Rate Index (PFRI scores 1 to 5) is recommended for
caries risk prediction, according to the following scale:
1. No caries risk: Streptococcus mutans-negative individual
2. Low caries risk: Streptococcus mutans-positive individual with a PFRI score of 1 or
2
3. Caries risk: Streptococcus mutans-positive individual with a PFRI score of 3
4. High caries risk: Individual with high S mutans counts and a PFRI score of 4 or 5